Paul Flynn's All-Ireland SFC semi-final predictions

Ahead of the weekend's hotly-anticipated All-Ireland football semi-finals and the Down-Wicklow Tailteann Cup decider, Paul Flynn offers his predictions for the Croke Park clashes.

Before we even get into the tactics, I think it's important to soak up the sense of opportunity surrounding this game because that's what makes it so special.

For Louth, this is dream territory. A few years ago, the thought of reaching an All-Ireland final wouldn't even have entered the conversation for this squad.

On the other hand Mayo's season has been turned on its head after those disappointing defeats to Roscommon and Tyrone, suddenly they're back within touching distance of an All-Ireland final. That's a remarkable turnaround.

The challenge now for both groups is to stay focused. Let the supporters get carried away with the excitement, but as players you have to stick to your gameplan because the margins are going to be tiny. And once again, we're saying it, but it genuinely is another game that's incredibly difficult to call. That's been the story of this championship.

Louth have been transformed this season by the emergence of players like Dara McDonnell, James Maguire and Kieran McArdle. Sean Callaghan falls into that category too, so his absence is a real blow. But while those younger players have injected energy and quality, it's the class of Sam Mulroy, Ciaran Downey and Craig Lennon that gives this team its direction.

For me, that middle eight is where Louth have to win this game. We saw against Monaghan how dominant they were in that area, even when they were reduced to 14 men. If they can control that sector again, they give themselves a huge chance.

That's also where I still have a few question marks about Mayo. But where Mayo have really evolved is up front. They now have something they were crying out for during the generation we played against – three genuine marquee forwards in Beirne, Ryan O'Donoghue and Kobe McDonald.

Add Tommy Conroy's renaissance in form, and suddenly they have serious firepower. Louth have experience in the full-back line, but if Mayo's inside forwards click, that could be what swings the game.

Both teams also have real impact coming off the bench, and in these tight games where momentum may need to be regained, the decisions on who and when is brought on can swing the games.

The thing I admire most about this Louth side is their belief. They've shown incredible resilience against Dublin and Armagh already this summer. They simply refuse to go away.

It's almost impossible to separate them, but there's just a feeling that something magical could be building in the Wee County and I'm buying into it!

The Tailteann Cup final should be another great occasion. Down are deserved favourites with their power, pace they’ve shown when they get to Croke Park.

They are hungry to get back into the Sam Maguire, but if this competition was ever designed to create moments for developing counties, a Wicklow victory would be absolutely epic.

Oisín McConville has done a tremendous job there, with Mark Jackson and Dean Healy leading the way. I still fancy Down, but Wicklow have already had a season they'll never forget.

This is a blockbuster game, and honestly, not many in the capital anticipated this change of fortunes after those losses to Westmeath and Louth.

It wasn't just the results; it was the lethargic manner of the performances that had people worried. But since Ger Brennan’s return, we’ve seen a total sea change. There’s a renewed energy, they’ve tightened up defensively, and you can sense that old Dublin belief creeping back into the group.

The real battleground, though, is going to be the midfield contest. Dublin have worked hard on their own kick-outs, but they are walking into a furnace here.

Kerry are incredibly well-organised at disrupting restarts, and they have the sheer physical profile to do it with men like Mark O’Shea, Sean O’Brien, and the two O’Connors, Diarmuid and Joe.

It’s an area Kerry will target, but Dublin have their own presence and experience in Peadar Ó Cofaigh Byrne, Brian Howard, and Ciarán Kilkenny to settle things down.

At the other end, Shane Murphy was flawless against Tyrone’s man-to-man setup, but he’s facing a different animal this weekend. Dublin’s zonal press is far more sophisticated, and if they can force Murphy long, it becomes a 50/50 battle.

For me, primary possession is the winning of this game—whoever wins that war of the restarts dictates the game. We saw how Donegal have disrupted Kerry when they starved them of primary possession and that needs to be Dublin’s game plan.

When we look at Kerry's attack, that’s where the nerves set in for Dublin. Their tenacity in their team defence has been brilliant, but matching up against this Kerry forward line is a massive ask, especially with the injury concerns hanging over Sean McMahon. Add the form of Dylan Geaney and David Clifford, and it’s hard to see how Dublin contain them for the full 70 minutes.

On the flip side, Niall Scully and Con O'Callaghan are playing at All-Star levels, but they’re facing a Kerry backline that has become incredibly mean when it comes to conceding goals but Tyrone caused them problems. Dublin will need to be clinical to unlock them and build on their improvements in recent weeks at popping over 2 pointers

The great 'X-Factor' here is the bench. That is the main differentiator. Kerry’s depth is frightening—virtually every sub they have would walk onto any other starting 15 in the country. When there's a debate about whether a player of Seán O'Shea's calibre even starts, it tells you everything you need to know about their strength.

The interesting thing is the psychology. There's a sense in Dublin that they have nothing to lose now; all the pressure, all the expectation, is sitting squarely on Kerry’s shoulders.

We know these games often get tangled up in history and produce results that defy logic, but I suspect this might be one bridge too far for this Dublin side. I expect them to make it a dogfight for three-quarters of the game, but when Kerry unload that bench in the final 15, they should have enough to pip them at the post.

Predictions: Louth, Kerry and Down

Paul Flynn was speaking on RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland

Watch the Tailteann Cup final, Down v Wicklow, on Saturday from 3.15pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow our live blog on all matches on RTÉ.ie/sport and RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1

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