$15m reasons Bombers must hire ‘ex-partner’ Hird... as 25-year fall from AFL’s big four exposed

Essendon has been given 15 million reasons to hire James Hird, with the true extent of their off-field dip since the heights of the 2000 premiership side laid bare.

While Hird’s former teammate Mark McVeigh is viewed by many as the favourite to get the job, Hird has been backed to drive boosts in off-field support for what was once the biggest club in Victoria, yet currently sits sixth in its own state based on memberships.

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While on-field performance will be a priority in the club’s coaching search the devoted Hird supporters who stuck with Essendon during the supplements saga, both fans and former club chairman Paul Little, are expected to help them close what’s now a $15 million revenue gap to Collingwood.

“Hiring James Hird’s almost like getting back with your former partner. The highs are stratospheric, but when it goes pear-shaped, it can be soul-destroying,” the Herald Sun’s Jon Ralph explained on Fox Footy’s Midweek Tackle.

“And so if it’s a football decision, all of (Mark) McVeigh, Jaymie Graham and Hird came out of their meetings feeling they did exceptionally well. I’m not sure about Murray Davis but I’m sure he presented well.

“It’s not about football, though, because the issue is this board knows they’re so far behind on so many of the parameters that their rivals have skyrocketed past them on. So how do you actually turn this club from good to great?

“You look at the membership figures from 2000 to 2025, Essendon, Carlton and Collingwood - look how Collingwood and Carlton have rolled past them at a rate of knots.”

At the turn of the century Essendon was Victoria’s biggest club based on memberships - peaking in 2000 when it produced one of the most dominant seasons in V/AFL history on route to the premiership.

But Collingwood caught up in the 2000s, with help from four Grand Final appearances in a decade; Hawthorn rose during the early 2010s before plateauing, while Richmond surged ahead in the late 2010s while winning three out of four premierships.

Memberships became an arms race, with clubs finding unique and sometimes questionable ways to inflate their figures, but there’s no doubt the Tigers’ on-field success contributed to them becoming the first team to break the 100,000-member barrier.

But it’s the 2020s where Essendon has truly failed to keep up with its rivals. Covid hurt most clubs’ tallies but since crowds returned, Carlton has surged well past Essendon to join the Magpies in the six-figure club, with the Bombers falling to sixth in Victoria alone.

MEMBERSHIP TOTALS FOR BIGGEST VICTORIAN CLUBS

2000

Essendon: 34,278 (4th overall behind ADE, WC, PA)

Collingwood: 28,932

Carlton: 27,571

Hawthorn: 26,879

Richmond: 26,869

Geelong: 25,595

2010

Hawthorn: 53,978 (1st overall)

Collingwood: 48,408

Essendon: 40,589

Carlton: 40,480

Geelong: 40,326

Richmond: 32,960

2019 (last season pre-Covid dip)

Richmond: 103,358 (1st overall)

Collingwood: 85,226

Essendon: 84,237

Hawthorn: 81,211

Geelong: 65,063

Carlton: 64,269

2025

Collingwood: 112,491 (1st overall)

Carlton: 100,743

Geelong: 92,379

Richmond: 92,531

Hawthorn: 87,204

Essendon: 85,568

Also contributing to Essendon’s declining financial might are their “worrisome” crowd figures.

“Collingwood’s had seven home games in excess of 60,000 (people), they’re declaring nearly $95 million in revenue and make $4.5 million in profit,” Ralph explained.

“Essendon’s near $80 million, they’ve made $500,000 in profit.

“Hird’s chasing Toby Greene, Lachie Neale, my understanding is he’s interested in Zak Butters - they’ve got Pick 1, they’ve got the cap space, he lives 40 minutes away from us in Darley.

“So I just think this is a once-great club that, under James Hird, might be good or bad but they would have vast ambition. They’ve lacked that for a very long time.”

While Essendon sits sixth overall for average home attendance this season, that figure is massively inflated by Anzac Day being their home game this year.

Take away that 92,231 figure, the biggest AFL crowd of the year, and their average would be a clear seventh-best - just above Port Adelaide.

Average home attendance 2026

1. Collingwood (63,754 - 11 games)

2. Carlton (54,160 - 10 games)

3. Fremantle (51,384 - 10 games)

4. Adelaide (46,266 - 11 games)

5. West Coast (45,021 - 10 games)

6. Essendon (44,505 - 10 games)

7. Richmond (42,303 - 10 games)

(Next best: Port Adelaide at 36,981)

More concerningly, their crowds have dropped off as they play out the string of a very disappointing season.

The notable exception is the Round 13 Sunday night clash against Carlton, though many of those fans were likely of a Blues persuasion.

MOST RECENT ESSENDON HOME CROWDS

R21 vs Adelaide: 20,518 at Marvel Stadium

R19 vs GWS: 14,601 at Marvel Stadium

R17 vs St Kilda: 34,713 at Marvel Stadium

R13 vs Carlton: 76,745 at the MCG

R10 vs Fremantle: 25,100 at the MCG

It all adds up to the inarguable truth that Essendon has been surpassed by its rivals.

“At the turn of the century, Collingwood used to look at Essendon as the team to follow. Everyone looked at them (like that); now it’s the complete opposite,” the Herald Sun’s Glenn McFarlane said on Midweek Tackle.

“They haven’t got that gravitas, they haven’t got that pull. It’s numbers, but it’s also in attracting free agents and trade targets; they were the biggest club in that 2000 period, they’re not now.

“And I can tell you a lot of people are worried about a lost generation of Essendon supporters. Kevin Sheedy’s one of them, he’s spoken about at length about losing a generation of young fans, and that’s crucial going forward.”

At the same time, while Hird’s return could help the club financially, it could also leave them more vulnerable to external pressure - which has been an issue at times as the club desperately tries to return to its past eras of greatness.

Ralph has previously reported Paul Little’s financial largesse could help the club pay the additional tax levied for clubs which go over the soft cap.

But it’s rare that benefactors seek nothing in return.

“There is a view as well with Hird, if you get him you get his entourage,” Ralph warned.

“That means the likes of Brendan McCartney, who would be exceptional as the development coach. You might even get Paul Little who could pay for some of that development.

“But you also get Paul, who of course is a former president there, and you get Paul’s influence. And so this is a club that’s had a lot of those external forces, a lot of those coterie groups as well, so I wonder whether Andrew Welsh is considering those things.

“Once you let them all in, it’s hard to push them all out again.”

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