Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 21, 2026

Things were looking sour for the Pies in 2026, but they’ve flipped their fortunes in superb fashion. Six wins on the trot entering tonight, Collingwood has ascended from wildcard hopefuls to top six contender, just two points behind an automatic spot in the finals. Nick Daicos has been on a tear, already breaking the individual record for the most coaches votes in a single season. They enter tonight without Brayden Maynard (knee tendon) who has suffered another injury setback.

Incredibly, Geelong remains a complete unknown in 2026. With form falling and rising like the tide, it is hard to know what to expect from the Cats on any given night. After suffering three straight losses and five defeats in six matches, Geelong took care of St Kilda before handing Melbourne their first loss at the MCG for the year without Jeremy Cameron, Max Holmes or Sam De Koning. Sat just behind the Pies in ninth place, Geelong will always remain a serious September contender if they land themselves a coveted spot.

Arguably the AFL’s most entertaining matchup over the last five years, Collingwood and Geelong have played out a series of thrillers – tonight feels no different. With a spot in September on the line for both sides, expect neither to give an inch. The Pies enter off the back of six straight wins – the hottest side in the competition – while the Cats enter with the buffer of a 54-point win in Round 9 of this year. No Maynard hurts the Pies but another week without Cameron, Holmes and now captain Patrick Dangerfield does the Cats no favours. This one will be tight – an absolute must-watch – but expect the hot Pies to carry on their win streak in style.

Things are going very nicely for Justin Longmuir’s Dockers in 2026. Since their little hiccup against GWS in Round 17, they’ve won three on the trot with the most recent a 70-point Derby romp over West Coast. They’re sitting three games clear on top opf the ladder with 17 wins and a very healthy percentage of 146. Freo are steamrolling towards their second minor premiership (after 2015) which could be wrapped up this coming weekend.

The Bulldogs have put themselves in a handy position in seventh spot, just four points behind the top four. They toiled early before coming away with a routine 57-point triumph over a battling Richmond side at Marvel Stadium last Saturday night, which similar to Freo, was a third win on the trot. They’ll be without Aaron Naughton for this stern test over in the west which could really stretch their depth. They’ve lost their last three, and four of their past five, to Freo.

The Dockers are in complete control of their game right now. They are 10-0 at Optus Stadium this year with an average winning margin of 39 points. Seven of their home wins have come by 30 points or more. It’s a scary place for opposition sides to play in 2026 and they should have too much quality for Luke Beveridge’s travelling Bulldogs. A Freo victory would create a new club record of 18 wins in a season.

This one means a bit to St Kilda after the events of 55 days ago at the SCG. A non-paid mark that would have iced the game and a stoppage breakdown led to the most heart-breaking loss of 2026 that, no doubt, will be used as motivational fodder for revenge.

The Max King flutter was short-lived and normal order resumes as the Saints look to claim their first top eight scalp of the season and solidify their wildcard position. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera will have to work through a James Jordon tag and will require support from his fellow mids, but his confidence will by sky-high after his masterclass last week.

Sydney had a compelling win last week against an enigmatic GWS and with the home and away season coming to a head, will be desperate to keep their motor running to secure a home Qualifying Final. The Swans have won their last three trips to Marvel Stadium including their five-point victory over the Saints in last year’s fixture.

These two sides have played off in some cracking games of-late with the total margin of the last three clashes being just nine points. This will be a red-hot clash to kick off Saturday’s footy and would be worthy of prime-time status with what’s at stake for both sides.

Sydney’s midfield looks immense, but the Saints have been outperforming their reputation in the middle all year. That may be where this one is won and lost and, therefore, the Swans would be expected to edge out another tight win over the Saints.

Hawthorn are hot on the back of three consecutive wins. All of those have come by at least 10 goals, and the Hawks will back themselves in to get a good result against another lesser-rated opposition.

The Hawks currently sit six points clear inside the top four, and a win here could go a long way to securing that double chance. While the Hawks lost last time out at Launceston, their record is brilliant having won the last 12 times at the venue prior to that.

Realistically, this is a bit of a mismatch. Hawthorn are peaking at the right time and gunning for a top four spot while North are just about set to wave the white flag on 2026. Anything but a strong Hawthorn win would surprise, particularly in Launceston.

If North can break even on-ball, then they may be able to stick around for some time, but you’d expet the Hawks to be too skilful on the outside, likely cutting a streaky Kangaroos defence apart with some slick kicking and ball movement.

Having played the two favourites for this year’s premiership in consecutive weeks, Port Adelaide are now gearing for both New South Wales sides, with GWS being the first cab off the rank. Josh Carr’s men hardly stood a chance against the Brisbane Lions, having been smashed by 59 points. But they did show plenty of fight in the first half by keeping the margin close before the Lions ran away with it towards the middle of the third quarter. That marks their third loss in a row, which they will be hopeful of breaking against an inconsistent Giants side. The club will also be keen to ensure they celebrate Willem Drew’s 150th game in style with the 27-year-old acting as captain in the absence of Connor Rozee and Zak Butters.

In the 33rd meeting of the Battle of the Bridge, the Giants were handed a 51-point defeat by their crosstown rivals, leaving their chances of a wildcard berth heavily reduced. And the bad news kept coming, as it was revealed that Finn Callaghan’s season has been cut short with the star midfielder requiring ankle surgery. Callaghan now marks the 16th player currently on GWS’s injury list. With three of their four clashes for the remainder of the season being against opponents below them, the Giants need to start putting wins on the board quickly to have any hope of their season extending beyond Round 24.

This is a game that GWS should be favoured to win. But with their track record with sides below them on the ladder, Port are more than a fighter’s chance to win. Despite sitting in the bottom four, Port Adelaide has a top-six defence, having conceded just over 83 points per game, showing they are capable of locking down sides, having only conceded 100+ points in three matches this season. And their defence should get the job done against the Giants' injury-depleted forward line.

Conversely, the Blues are sliding since their post-Voss purple patch. After Voss departed, Carlton went on a seven-game winning streak, but have now lost to Hawthorn and Collingwood, and barely got across the line against a severely out-of-form Suns. Also, during the Blues’ winning streak, they only defeated the cellar dwelling Richmond and Essendon by two and five points, respectively – something not to water your mouth at.

When looking at the recent form between these two teams, the Lions have won eight of their previous nine games against the Blues – just another sign that Brisbane should prevail in this Saturday night matchup at Marvel.

Since they last met the Tigers have averaged less than 64 points across 11 matches (about their season average), while conceding a mammoth 103 per game. The Eagles, who have lost seven on the trot, are slightly better with a scoring average of 71, while conceding only 88 on average.

Melbourne look set to make some forced changes with Kade Chandler (hand) and Latrelle Pickett (concussion) missing with injury although Changkuoth Jiath and Caleb Windsor are a chance to return. As for the Suns, Damien Hardwick might swing the axe again following another disappointing loss.

Gold Coast still look a tough team at home and Melbourne can’t afford to drop this game in their quest for a top six spot. This could be an arm wrestle but ultimately the Suns have been all duck no dinner in 2026 and the Dees should be able to get the win on the road.

It wasn’t much better for Adelaide either who perhaps got slightly ahead of themselves following their win against Sydney on the road. They looked a beat behind the Pies around the ground and only managed four goals after half time.

Essendon are clinging on to 17th spot on the ladder, just 4.5 percent above Richmond. Given the year that the club has had, it would be a small tick to have avoided the wooden spoon.

If the Bombers are to be any chance in this game, they are going to need to manage a Crows side that brings high pressure football and surges in patches of the game. The Bombers have generally struggled with accuracy and efficiency inside-50, blowing genuine opportunities to keep them in the game. They’ll need to capitalise on every chance they get under the roof to challenge the Crows.

Adelaide will also be welcoming back Mark Keane and Brayden Cook who missed last week whilst Essendon lose Sullivan Robey and Jordan Ridley but gain Kyle Langford back from injury. Elijah Tstatas continues to dominate in the VFL and could be due for a recall to the senior side.

The Bombers pulled off a miracle at Marvel the last time they played there a fortnight ago but it’s hard to see that happening again. It's fair to say Adelaide have got this fixture at a great time with the opportunity to fix last week's mistakes, bank the four points and boost the percentage heading into finals.

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