Inconceivable reality facing Aussie cricket... and names who could save us: Talking Points

Australian cricket is about to embark on a defining 12 months that could shape the Test side for years to come.

It starts against Bangladesh in Darwin before Pat Cummins’ side heads to South Africa for one of Test cricket’s traditionally toughest assignments.

Then comes a four-Test home series against New Zealand before the calendar turns to 2027 and the challenge ramps up even further – with a tour of India followed by the historic 150th anniversary Test against England.

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And while Australia will be chasing victories throughout, some even bigger questions are looming over this ageing side.

From the battle between Josh Hazlewood and Scott Boland and whether Cameron Green and Beau Webster can continue to coexist, to conquering India’s “final frontier” and the prospect of several Australian greats nearing the end, the next 12 months could prove defining for both this generation and the one that follows.

Here are the biggest talking points facing Australia over a massive 12 months of Test cricket.

ARE SOUTH AFRICA AND INDIA STILL THE TOUGHEST TOURS?

They might be the reigning World Test Champions, but South Africa are far from impregnable on their own shores.

A lack of matches – last summer saw the Proteas play no Tests at home, with the SA20 tournament taking precedence – saw them rack up wins from limited opportunities to give themselves the chance of stunning Australia at Lord’s in 2025.

But their last home Test against an opponent of merit, in early 2024, saw them routed for 55 before losing by seven wickets in a match that lasted less than two days.

Despite their WTC final heroics, the likes of Temba Bavuma, Aiden Markram, Marco Jansen and Wiaan Mulder don’t strike fear into the hearts quite like their predecessors Graeme Smith, AB de Villiers, Dale Steyn, Faf du Plessis and co.

It’s the same in India, where a decade-long stranglehold over visiting teams was first shattered by a touring New Zealand in 2024, before being blown to smithereens by the Proteas themselves last year.

While Australia remains steadfast in backing in their senior core, this is an Indian team in transition.

Virat Kohli, Ravichandran Ashwin and Rohit Sharma’s swansong came in the 2024/25 Border-Gavaskar Trophy, while Ravindra Jadeja is past his best with the ball.

Coach Gautam Gambhir’s policy of filling their vacant spots in the team with a litany of bits and pieces all-rounders, from Washington Sundar to Nitish Kumar Reddy, has also come under heavy scrutiny.

Jasprit Bumrah is a Test-to-Test proposition as his ungainly action time and again leads to injury.

Even captain Shubman Gill is not as indestructible as Kohli was, with a neck injury he sustained midway through the first Test against South Africa proving critical as his ten-man team succumbed by just 30 runs, then floundered to lose by 408 in his absence one match later.

Two teams with even less historic success than Australia on the subcontinent, both blessed with fast bowling greats rather than star spinners, have taken India apart on their own shores for five victories in five in the last two years.

It’s a once in a generation opportunity to conquer what Steve Waugh once famously described as “the final frontier”.

BOLAND OR HAZLEWOOD?

Australia’s most pressing selection dilemma of the short-term future is also the one with the fewest stakes attached.

The choice between a fast bowling great just five wickets away from the 300 mark and an average of 24 with the ball over 11 years, or a late bloomer with an average of under 19 who’s lethal in favourable conditions and miserly in anything else is one any other nation would love to have.

It’s Hazlewood who remains the frontrunner in the queue, as he has been when fit for the last 11 years.

He’ll get first crack at Bangladesh, with Boland likely to play throughout the next 15 months as the pair rotate alongside Cummins and Starc to ensure Australia avoids running the same trio dry as they did when India toured in 2020/21.

Hazlewood’s penchant for breaking down at the start of series, as he has done in three of the last four home summers, means all eyes will be on the veteran New South Welshman as he begins his run-up in Darwin.

It will also make selectors ultra-cautious about naming him even for back-to-back Tests.

Boland, whose injury history is far kinder, has and will continue to be the world’s most valuable next quick in line.

But for now at least, the answer to the Hazlewood vs Boland question appears to be, well, both.

HOW LONG WILL TWO ALL-ROUNDERS BE VIABLE?

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Beau Webster was adamant he and Cameron Green can coexist in the same team.

Ostensibly, he’s correct: Australia’s selectors’ estimation of Green has consistently been that he is among the best six batters in Australia.

Webster’s run of key contributions at Test level has earned him the right to a spot on his batting alone, too.

But it’s one thing to test it out on likely pristine batting surfaces against a touring Bangladesh, and quite another to face a South African seam attack on home shores with a batting order already proved to have failed against them in the 2025 World Test Championship final.

A strong start to the Sheffield Shield summer from a known batter – a Nathan McSweeney or Matt Renshaw, say – would leave selectors hard-pressed to not want to shore up the top six ahead of tours of India and England where runs will likely be at a premium.

If Green can return to something near his bowling best, he’d be a vital second seamer alongside one of Cummins or Starc in India, and allow Australia to play three spinners – a gambit successfully employed in the 2023 tour and in Sri Lanka last year.

Despite Webster’s capacity to bowl off-spin, his road might be tougher: Australia went into that 2023 series with plans for Ashton Agar to slot in as a spin-bowling all-rounder, only to be sent home mid-tour.

More spin-friendly Indian conditions like the ones which saw New Zealand claim an upset series win in 2024 might call for a more batting-heavy top six.

If that’s the case, then both Webster and Green have plenty to prove against Bangladesh, South Africa and the Black Caps.

CAN THE KIWIS PUT UP A GOOD SHOW?

New Zealand’s 15-year ascent to become one of world cricket’s most respected teams has featured a string of World Cup finals, famous series wins in England and India, and status as the first ever World Test Champions.

But through it, they’ve never won so much as a single Test in Australia.

From six starts across tours in 2015/16 and 2019/20, both with strong XIs in fine form going in, the Black Caps have mustered just one draw.

The latter series is among the most one-sided ever to be seen on these shores, with Marnus Labuschagne racking up a near-farcical glut of runs and the tourists skittled for under 200 on blameless pitches four times out of six.

Only remnants of that team remain – captain Tom Latham and seamer Matt Henry the only regulars then who remain so now.

But these scars are generational: New Zealand have just one win on Australian shores since Richard Hadlee in his pomp more than 40 years ago.

Their standing in the game has been rewarded with a first ever four-Test series – a far cry from recent days gone by, when they typically served as a two-Test appetiser deemed unworthy of the marquee Boxing Day or New Year’s Tests.

Latham’s team won’t have Kane Williamson, but that didn’t stop them sending England’s Bazballers into an era-ending death spiral in the series just gone.

But with so much history against them, those four trans-Tasman Tests are the only time in the next year Australia won’t be the team with the most at stake.

New Zealand simply must be competitive – and probably, as England did last summer, win at least one Test – to check off their last, most glaring failure of a decade and a half of consistent excellence.

WHERE DOES THE 150TH ANNIVERSARY GAME SIT?

Next March’s match between Australia and England commemorating the 150th anniversary of the first ever Test match won’t be played for the Ashes.

It won’t even be played for World Test Championship points.

Yet its significance cannot be understated.

Most Australians would struggle to recall Test contests, results and deeds, beyond the biggest highlights, from the 1970s and 80s.

But the Centenary Test of 1977 is part of cricket folklore, from Dennis Lillee’s 11 wickets, to Derek Randall’s defiant fourth-innings century, to Rick McCosker returning to bat after having his jaw broken by a Bob Willis bouncer.

Every Australian will want to be a part of it – even if Smith isn’t impressed about its status as a day-night match.

Moreover, Australia won both the inaugural Test and the Centenary Test – both, remarkably, by 45 runs.

That’s 150 years of history Cummins would be loath to break.

HOW MANY GREATS WILL BOW OUT?

The next 15 months can take a golden generation of Australian greats into the rare air of true cricketing immortals.

A superb performance to end a 26-year series victory drought in England would put Cummins firmly in the mix as one of the country’s greatest ever captains.

A rampant series in India would make Nathan Lyon’s case to sit only behind Shane Warne and Muttiah Muralitharan as the third-greatest spinner in history would be very defendable … especially if he makes it to 600 Test wickets and beyond.

Having ticked off an inspiring home Ashes, Starc can end any lingering doubts about his status as an all time great with a revenge mission in South Africa.

Ditto Hazlewood, who could earn the chance to personally write the farewells that injury or form threaten to pen on his behalf with a return to his best.

As for Smith, a 50 average over the next 12 months, or even a key contribution to series wins in all three overseas assignments, would end any debate over him or Ponting as the greatest Australian batter since Don Bradman.

But the end of this unprecedently packed schedule of cricket, that concludes with the ODI World Cup in November next year, has the distinct air of an era ending.

It would shock no one for Smith, 38 in June 2027, to make his final bow in England, the site of his grandest achievement in 2019.

Lyon turns 39 before the start of the home summer – having been invalided out of the last two Ashes series, one last duel against the old enemy is surely a major motivator.

Starc and Hazlewood, 36 and 35 respectively, won’t be far behind, with Starc’s retirement from T20I cricket in early 2025 the first sign of an impending end.

For the left-armer in particular, the chance to leave a defining mark on another World Cup and join McGrath in bowing out as a newly minted three-time champion must be appealing.

And having opted against raking in IPL millions throughout much of his career, he would be forgiven for wanting to keep something in the tank for a lap of honour in franchise cricket, as Warner is doing, before hanging up the boots for good.

It’s almost inconceivable for all of Smith, Starc, Lyon and Hazlewood to be there for the first Test of the 2027/28 summer.

Losing all four – especially if a then 36-year-old Carey or 38-year old Boland join them – would be a flurry of retirements not seen since the 2015 Ashes brought the curtain down on Michael Clarke, Chris Rogers, Brad Haddin and Shane Watson.

Not since Warne, McGrath and Justin Langer bid farewell at the culmination of the 2006/7 Ashes whitewash would so much greatness have been lost at a single stroke.

… AND WHERE WOULD AUSTRALIAN CRICKET GO FROM THERE?

Australia were taken by surprise in December 2006 when Warne, McGrath and Langer announced their retirements within days of one another.

But even costlier than losing that golden trio was the sudden deterioration of plans made for their inevitable departure.

Phil Jaques, seen as a readymade opening replacement, had six Tests and an average of beyond 50 post-Langer before his back gave in.

Stuart MacGill, at last given his chance to shine out of Warne’s shadow, had an even shorter run, well below his best in four remaining matches before knee and arm nerve issues spelled his immediate end.

And even Australia’s mighty fast-bowling stocks took until Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc to match their McGrath era greatness – though the intervening years featured highlights from Mitchell Johnson, Ryan Harris, Peter Siddle and Ben Hilfenhaus among others.

Perhaps that is why Australian selectors have hitherto shirked every chance to replenish the line-up ahead of its time, most obviously with a full-strength XI to face Bangladesh in both Tests.

Josh Inglis, now a near-perennial squad member as reserve batter, seems poised to step into Carey’s shoes as wicketkeeper if premature retirement strikes.

Todd Murphy and Matt Kuhnemann have both had tastes of Test cricket overseas – one of them, or the impressive Corey Rocchiccioli, lead the post-Lyon spin candidates.

Plenty will rest on Green, ideally as a Smith replacement at No.4 in the batting order. The next 12 months may well prove if he is up for the assignment.

Fast bowling is where the drop-off will truly come, especially if Starc, Hazlewood and Boland retire either in the next 15 months or shortly after it.

Cummins is good enough to lead the attack for years to come.

But of the next generation, tearaways Jhye Richardson and Lance Morris have already been racked by injuries, Fergus O’Neill has a sub-20 Sheffield Shield bowling average but lacks the pace to be seen as a true next big thing, and that 36-year old Neser remained the go-to reserve quick for much of the summer’s Ashes speaks volumes.

The positive is that after this glut of blockbuster fixtures, the schedule quietens down.

The next home Ashes isn’t for another three years; an Australian Border-Gavaskar Trophy will most likely start in December 2028. Overseas Tests are already dwindling as franchise cricket becomes a priority for nations beyond the ‘Big Three’.

All the same, gaping holes are about to be opened up in the team for the first time in a generation.

So while Smith, Cummins and co. face their defining moments in the year to come, the powers that be in Australian cricket are set for an even tougher challenge in the year immediately afterwards.

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