Paul Flynn's football championship predictions

After a highly competitive and surprise-laden provincial championships, we're at the semi-final stage in both Leinster and Ulster, the weekend providing us with four fixtures which are again extremely difficult to call.

Leinster SFC semi-finals

We've an exciting weekend ahead, and starting in Leinster, Dublin go into the semi-final against Louth as underdogs - and that’s deserved.

They were fortunate to get past Wicklow. It was an under-performance, and they’re still dealing with issues around form and the fitness of key players. There’s no real fluency to them at the moment.

Louth, on the other hand, come in off the back of a very accomplished win over a decent Wexford side. There’s a balance to them now. The younger players like Dara McDonnell and Tadhg McDonnell are adding serious energy, and then you’ve the established All-Stars in Sam Mulroy and Craig Lennon leading things.

It’s not just a good team - it’s a complete squad, and they’ve a bench that can help close games out.

This is a huge moment for Louth. They won Leinster last year without beating Dublin - doing it here would be a significant step for them.

But Dublin are a wounded team. Injuries are part of it, but they’re also being questioned as a group. I expect them to respond - and if Paddy Small, Seán Bugler and Niall Scully get going up front, and Brian Howard, Ciarán Kilkenny and Peadar O’Cofaigh Byrne can get a foothold around the middle - then they absolutely have the talent to turn Louth over.

It’s very tight. Really difficult to call. Dublin to edge it.

On the other side, Kildare and Westmeath is just as close.

The big factor is Luke Loughlin’s injury. It’s a massive loss for Westmeath and takes a lot out of their attack. Kildare won’t mind that, but they still need to focus on their own job.

Defensively, they have to be ready for Westmeath’s goal threat. Shane Corcoran is central to everything they do in attack now - he needs to be shut down - and Ray Connellan has to be nullified in midfield as well.

From Kildare’s point of view, it starts with matching Westmeath’s energy. If they don’t do that, nothing else matters. After that, it’s about being clinical. Eoin Cully, Darragh Kirwan and Ben Loakman inside, along with Ben McCormack, need to take their chances.

Again, it’s very tight. Kildare might just edge it, and Loughlin’s absence is probably the reason why.

Ulster SFC semi-finals

The big question is whether Down can reproduce the level they hit in that win over Donegal. That was a huge performance. Conor Laverty has built a panel that suits summer football — direct, aggressive, and hard running.

Odhran Murdock is a generational talent, and that Down half-back line is something Armagh will need to pay serious attention to.

But Armagh won’t be surprised this time. They’ve seen what Down can bring. The concern for Armagh is defensively.

Fermanagh opened them up in the second half, and that’s something they’ll need to tighten. They’ve also a huge loss in Ben Crealey around midfield.

For Down, there’s a lot on this. Reaching the final gives them a shot at Sam Maguire. The Tailteann Cup won’t motivate them at this stage of their development.

But Armagh are ruthless, and you’d expect them to be more clinical in front of goal than Donegal were. That might be the difference. Armagh just about for me.

Derry look like a rejuvenated group. They had a solid league and backed it up with a straightforward win over Antrim, but this is a different level.

Monaghan looked much more like themselves against Cavan after a poor league. All six forwards scored, and they were far more connected as a unit.

Dessie Ward is key - operating in that pocket and consistently taking scores. He’ll need attention, likely from centre back.

Monaghan will improve again from that Cavan performance, so this is far from straightforward for Derry.

But Derry have more experience across their group, and their attack looks more in sync this year. That could be enough to get them through - but it’s another one that's very tight to call.

Watch Armagh v Down in the Ulster Football Championship on Sunday from 3.45pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow our live blog on RTÉ.ie/sport and RTÉ News app and listen to Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1

Watch The Saturday Game and The Sunday Game from 9.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on all matches on the RTÉ News app and on rte.ie/sport

Click here to read article