What are the chances of Virat Kohli breaking Sachin Tendulkar's record of most ODI runs? How close can he get?

Notably, Kohli now has 14,255 runs under his belt, just behind Sachin Tendulkar’s 18,426. The record seems a long distance away; however, the question will rise in the minds of common Kohli fans - Can Kohli reach the summit of ODI runs?

Let us examine the probabilities in detail -

Where the numbers stand now

Kohli: Now second in ODIs in terms of runs scored after passing Sangakkara during the SCG ODI.

Tendulkar: 18,426 runs - the highest ever.

Kohli needs 4,172 runs to surpass Tendulkar and be at the top of this list.

Our prediction model

Fixtures left: Considering India plays in the final of WC 2027 and that turns out to be the last match of Kohli’s career, we can say that he has 23 more matches left.

12 ODIs from the currently announced schedule through 2026.

11 matches at the 2027 World Cup, if India reaches the final.

Form: We have considered three runs per innings production bands for Kohli over those 23 matches.

Conservative: 40 runs per innings - 920 runs

Career standard: 55-58 runs per innings - 1,265 to 1,335 runs

Peak form: more than 60 runs per innings with 1 or 2 big centuries - 1,350 to 1,500 runs

Simulation: Thousands of season-tails using the above assumptions are done. The share of outcomes where he goes past Sachin clusters around 1%.

How close can Kohli get?

Even on the bullish lane, Kohli adds around 1.5k runs to his tally. That takes his tally to around 16,000 ODI runs. This also stays an elite career, and if he gets past the 15k and 16k marks, he will only be the second batter to do so in the history of the game. But if indeed the 2027 WC is his last, then it is improbable for him to get past Tendulkar.

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