Shock top-eight dark horse and contender’s dream draw; fallen giant’s 0.1% miracle

With five rounds remaining, four teams have been given a chance to take out the minor premiership, according to the Fox Sports Lab.

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While Penrith looks to have a stranglehold on top spot, the Roosters are now rated the best chance of challenging them after their 82-12 win over the Cowboys last weekend.

The Fox Sports Lab has given the out-of-form Manly a surprisingly good chance of making the finals while the Dragons are pretty much a lock for the wooden spoon after their loss to the Dolphins on the weekend.

The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers and based on team ratings, the remaining games have been simulated 100,000 times, with the venues adding a little extra weighting to find out where the teams will finish on the ladder.

1. PENRITH PANTHERS (36 points, +308)

Predicted finish: 1st

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 99.9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 78.2%

Remaining games: Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H)

Analysis: Penrith put in their best performance in some time against the in-form Raiders last week. It was a good response to the Roosters after their massive win on Thursday night and keeps them two points clear at the top. They’ll be sweating on the fitness of Casey McLean who went off with a hand injury on Saturday night. It looks like he’ll spend some time on the sidelines. Izack Tago is a top-shelf replacement. With a great points differential, Penrith can still afford to drop a game and take out the minor premiership. They could wrap it up in the next fortnight with wins over the Warriors and Roosters.

2. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (34 points, +155)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 94.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 12.5%

Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: They scored 82 points against a pathetic Cowboys side on Thursday night which got the competition talking. The only negative to come from the night was an ankle injury to James Tedesco. It’s not serious though and he will play this week. Their form prior to the Cowboys demolition was only fair despite racking up the wins. The next fortnight is massive for them. If they can beat Penrith in two weeks, they’ll be the most confident team in the competition. A loss, however, will ensure the mental scars remain given their poor record against the Panthers in recent seasons.

3. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (32 points, +226)

Predicted finish: 4th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 88.8%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 4.7%

Remaining games: Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Rabbitohs (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (H)

Analysis: A good win away from home against an underestimated opponent has kept their minor premiership hopes alive. If they beat Penrith at home on Friday night they’ll be looking good for a top two finish given their draw isn’t overly hard after Penrith. Taine Tuaupiki could be back this week from a foot injury.

4. CRONULLA SHARKS (32 points, +177)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 95.5%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 4.6%

Remaining games: Dragons (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Storm (H)

Analysis: According to the Fox Sports Lab they have the easiest draw for the run home and they’re certainly taking advantage of it. Another big win on the weekend has them putting the pressure on the three teams above them on the ladder. It’s predicted they’ll finish second because it’s likely they can win all their remaining matches which would put them on a 10-match winning streak heading into week one of the finals.

5. DOLPHINS (30 points, +90)

Predicted finish: 5th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.3%

Chance of finishing top four: 19.9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Broncos (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H), Roosters (A), Titans (A)

Analysis: They beat the Dragons in a fairly tight game on Friday evening, but left a lot of points out there. They got their best player Isaiya Katoa back last week and he’ll be better for the run. They’re just about the healthiest club in the competition, which is so vital at this time of the year. They could have the best bench in the league too. When the likes of Kurt Donoghue and Max Plath came on against the Dragons, the Dolphins probably got even better.

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6. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (28 points, +60)

Predicted finish: 6th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 86.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 1.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Raiders (A), Titans (H), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), BYE

Analysis: Last week’s win over Brisbane has just about got them into the finals given they’ve still got a bye to come. They probably need to win just one of their remaining four games to qualify for the finals. They’ve got some tricky games ahead and will have to do it without halfback Dylan Brown, but his replacement, Sandon Smith, played well on the weekend in combination with Fletcher Sharp. The Fox Sports Lab has given them a 1.1 per cent chance of making the top four.

7. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (26 points, +62)

Predicted finish: 7th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 71.5%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.6%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Eels (H), Bulldogs (A), Warriors (H), Titans (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: They desperately need Cameron Murray, David Fifita and Tallis Duncan back this week. They still need to win three more games to assure themselves a finals spot. None of their final five matches are easy, particularly the Warriors and Roosters. The latter would love nothing more than to knock them out of finals contention. Without Latrell Mitchell, they’re not considered a title threat, and he may not play again this season as he battles nerve issues.

8. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (26 points, -44)

Predicted finish: 8th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 55.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Panthers (A), Broncos (H)

Analysis: They’ve won six of their past seven to surge into the top eight. The Dogs receive a huge boost with the anticipated return of Sitili Tupouniua, and they’ll need him against the red-hot Roosters. They’ve also got to face Penrith in the run-in. They need to improve their attack if they’re to make the finals.

9. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (26 points, -98)

Predicted finish: 9th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 42.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Titans (A), Eels (A), bye, Tigers (H), Raiders (H)

Analysis: They have one of the easiest runs home according to the Fox Sports Lab, but are coming off a 70-point loss to the Roosters which was described by coach Todd Payten as the club’s “darkest day”. Fox League’s Cooper Cronk has questioned whether they can recover from the humiliating loss. They still have a bye and only travel interstate once in the final five weeks which will be a big help. You get the feeling the Titans game this week is a crunch game. Another loss, and Cronk may be right.

10. MANLY SEA EAGLES (24 points, +90)

Predicted finish: 10th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 42.2%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (A)

Analysis: They really needed the bye last week after losing five of their previous six. They’re only two points off eighth spot and do have a better for-and-against than the teams around them on the ladder so their finals charge is not over, which is why the Fox Sports Lab has given them a 42.2 per cent chance of making the eight. The Lab has even given them a 0.1 per cent hope of reaching the top four. An understrength Storm this weekend is a must-win game. They may only be able to lose one of their remaining five matches if they’re to play finals and only play at home twice.

11. CANBERRA RAIDERS (22 points, -59)

Predicted finish: 11th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 2.2%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Knights (H), Sharks (A), Broncos (H), BYE, Cowboys (A)

Analysis: Last week’s loss to Penrith didn’t officially end their season but in reality it likely did. The Fox Sports Lab now only gives them a 2.2 per cent chance of playing finals footy. They need to win all their remaining games to be a finals hope. With tough away trips to Cronulla and North Queensland ahead, they probably have too much to do. They’re trying hard, but are their own worst enemy when it comes to discipline, which is the main reason they’re not going to play finals football in 2026.

12. MELBOURNE STORM (20 points, -26)

Predicted finish: 12th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), BYE, Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Sharks (A)

Analysis: They’re going to be understrength again without Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes. They’re still playing with plenty of grit and coach Craig Bellamy said he’d drop players to reserve grade if they were just “going through the motions” now that the finals are out of reach. Technically, the Fox Sports Lab says they’re not, but only gives the Storm a 0.1 per cent chance of pulling off a top eight miracle. They have a very tough run home after the bye.

13. PARRAMATTA EELS (20 points, -179)

Predicted finish: 13th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A), Cowboys (H), Dolphins (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (A)

Analysis: They jumped from 16th to 13th on the ladder after beating the Tigers on Sunday and have a reasonable run home with the Sharks being the biggest obstacle. They won on the weekend but it wasn’t a great performance. Play like that this week and Souths will beat them. If they jag a win and Melbourne loses, they’ll finish the round in 12th and all of a sudden it’s not looking like a shocking season.

14. GOLD COAST TITANS (18 points, -122)

Predicted finish: 14th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Cowboys (H), Knights (A), Sharks (H), Rabbitohs (H), Dolphins (H)

Analysis: For weeks the Fox Sports Lab has been giving them a less than one per cent chance of making the finals despite their lowly position on the ladder. Finally, the Lab has given up on them because they can only get to 28 points if they win all their remaining games.

15. BRISBANE BRONCOS (18 points, -156)

Predicted finish: 15th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Warriors (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

Analysis: The Broncos just want to put this season behind them and get to Mad Monday. It’s been a shocking title defence and their local rivals the Dolphins would love nothing more than to kick them while they’re down this week. The big brother Brisbane won’t want to lose this game so expect them to be up for it. The Storm are the only out-of-form side they face now and running second last is a possibility.

16. WESTS TIGERS (18 points, -211)

Predicted finish: 16th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: BYE, Dragons (H), Roosters (A), Cowboys (A), Panthers (A)

Analysis: They really need the bye this week. And if Brisbane or the Gold Coast loses they’ll at least move up from second last on the ladder. To make things worse for the struggling club, they’ve still got to play the Panthers and Roosters. Their best chance for a win will come next week at home to the last-placed Dragons.

17. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (10 points, -273)

Predicted finish: 17th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Sharks (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H)

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