NFL Draft Talking Points: $75m mistake may be worth making; QB mystery to force giant gamble

Everyone’s favourite job fair is back, with a fascinating first round of the 2026 NFL Draft getting underway on Friday morning (AEST).

While the No.1 pick is a sure thing, there’s mystery surrounding the rest of the first round, with poor quarterback options ready to force desperate teams to take a punt.

Watch the 2026 NFL Draft LIVE with ESPN on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.

And then there’s the best player in the entire draft... who may send the team that nabs him into an immediate financial hole.

Below, Foxsports.com.au has everything you need to know about the NFL Draft including the big storylines.

WHEN IS THE NFL DRAFT?

The 2026 NFL Draft takes place in Pittsburgh from Friday March 24 to Sunday March 26 (Australian times).

Friday April 24: Round 1, 10am AEST

Saturday April 25: Rounds 2-3, 9am AEST

Sunday April 26: Rounds 4-7, 2am AEST

HOW CAN I WATCH THE NFL DRAFT IN AUSTRALIA?

Every pick of the 2026 NFL Draft will be shown on Foxtel and Kayo via ESPN, and on DAZN via NFL Game Pass.

Foxsports.com.au will have live updates and analysis throughout the weekend.

WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST NFL DRAFT TALKING POINTS TO KNOW?

Why the draft really starts at second overall

There is no question who’ll go No.1, with Indiana’s title-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza to become a Las Vegas Raider, potentially backing up Kirk Cousins to start his NFL career.

The New York Jets, at No.2, would love a QB themselves. But Mendoza is by far the best passer in the class, as we’ll discuss below, giving them no such option.

So the first live decision will be which defender the Jets want, and it’s widely expected they’ll take one of the top two pass rushers - Texas Tech’s David Bailey, who led the top level of college football in pressure rate and tied for the lead in sacks last year, or Ohio State’s Arvell Reese, who is viewed as having the greater upside of the pair.

And then it gets even more interesting...

Where does Jeremiyah Love go?

Beyond whether the Jets take Bailey or Reese, the next biggest question in the draft is where standout running back Jeremiyah Love goes.

The Notre Dame superstar is widely regarded as one of, if not the, best prospect in this year’s class, but it’s a question of whether a team is willing to use an incredibly high pick on a lower-impact position.

Arizona at No.3 would prefer to trade down, but will consider Love if they hold onto their pick, as will Tennessee at No.4 attempting to create a dangerous pairing with QB Cam Ward.

At worst Love is likely to go No.7 to Washington, as they have chased multiple running backs across the last two off-seasons including signing Rachaad White and Jerome Ford this year to partner Jacory Croskey-Merritt - all of them relatively cheap.

No running back has gone inside the top five since Saquon Barkley joined the Giants at No.2 in 2018.

The problem is not one of pure talent, but of positional value, because of the defined rookie pay scale determined by where players are selected.

For example the highest-paid edge rushers in the NFL are paid up to $US46.5 million, with five players over $US40 million in average salary, while the highest-paid wide receivers are paid just under that (Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching $US42.15 million).

The top running back contract in the NFL is $US20.6 million, for Barkley in Philadelphia, while Christian McCaffrey is the only other RB paid over $US15 million a year.

Should Arizona take Love at No.3, he would sign a four-year contract worth $US53.86 million ($AU75.46 million) - immediately making him the seventh highest-paid running back in the NFL.

If they instead took a receiver, that player would become the 30th highest-paid at his position, while an edge rusher would rank 32nd at his position.

Even if Love is more likely to be a successful player, he must be one of the game’s best running backs immediately just for his contract to be worthwhile - if he struggles, he’s overpaid, and only if he’s immediately as good as Barkley or McCaffrey would he be a bargain.

He is also at a position that’s simply less valuable in the modern game - the impact of a great running back is less than the impact of a great receiver or edge rusher.

In contrast should the No.3 pick turn into an elite player at a premium position, that team now has an absolute bargain for the length of his rookie deal.

Where does Ty Simpson land?

There are NFL Drafts all about the QBs... and then there are NFL Drafts all about the QBs, except there aren’t many good ones to take.

This year is the latter.

Mendoza would be a top-five pick in pretty much any draft - for context, if he would’ve been in the loaded 2024 Draft, he likely would’ve gone fourth behind No.1 pick Caleb Williams, No.2 pick Jayden Daniels and No.3 pick Drake Maye, but comfortably before Michael Penix Jr. at No.8 and JJ McCarthy at No.10 (ooft).

But the 2026 pool of QBs is closer to 2025’s, when Cam Ward was a clear No.1 for the Titans, with Jaxson Dart heading to the Giants at No.25, before Tyler Shough joined the Saints at No.40.

The latter two were flawed prospects - Dart because of his gimmicky college offence, and Shough because he’s both Just OK and surprisingly old - but turned out to be reasonable starting options in their rookie seasons.

Teams looking for a QB between picks 20 and 60 will be hopeful of getting a player on that level, and you can certainly make the case.

Alabama’s Ty Simpson is almost certain to be the second passer off the board, despite a limited college career of 15 starts and questions over his physical abilities.

One-year starters are risky - just ask Mitch Trubisky, Anthony Richardson and Dwayne Haskins, the only three to go in the first round over the past decade.

After a strong start to his 2025 season with limited expectations, Simpson began to struggle - both playing hurt, and in bigger games against tougher opposition. But you can absolutely see the potential to develop into a very clever QB here, and NFL teams love believing in their ability to shine a diamond in the rough.

The closest comparison to him right now would be Baker Mayfield; if you recall, the Bucs passer was brilliant to open last season and was discussed as an MVP contender, before falling off while playing hurt. The injuries were a problem but primarily it was Mayfield’s natural inconsistency - if he played like Good Baker every drive, he would be a superstar, but Bad Baker comes out enough that he can’t hit that ceiling.

Simpson was similarly inconsistent drive-to-drive in college and if you can coach that out of him, he can absolutely be a top-20 NFL QB. But he is nowhere close to a sure thing.

Arizona has been most closely linked to Simpson and is likely to consider moving up into the end of the first round, so that they get a fifth-year option on his rookie contract, rather than taking him at No.34.

The third-best option is LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, who doesn’t quite have the arm talent but makes up for it with bravery in the pocket which lets him attempt NFL-quality deep throws with solid accuracy.

His ceiling is a Brock Purdy type - who did well when thrown into the deep end with the Niners by taking advantage of their excellent skill position talent - but he needs to be in the right, aggressive system with the right targets and be given time to develop.

Explosive plays are the modern NFL meta and Nussmeier can unlock them, but it’s still more likely than not he won’t become a good starting option, plus he has a question mark after battling a core injury in 2025 which limited the velocity on his passes.

His tape in 2024 was arguably better than Simpson’s tape in 2025 but the fact he’ll be going into the NFL off an injury matters.

A lack of QBs and RBs will push receivers up the board

Last year, 25 running backs were taken in the draft. That included six inside the first three rounds alone.

Sure, the NFL experienced a running back renaissance of sorts in the 2024 season thanks to heavier personnel packages on offence and, among other factors, defences implementing high coverage zones in an attempt to take away big plays.

But there was also simply much more talent in last year’s running back class.

The same goes for quarterback. Cam Ward, like Mendoza, was the consensus number one pick to the Titans while Jaxson Dart, like Ty Simpson, was a fringe round-one prospect who had his fair share of fans and sceptics.

But beyond Dart, Tyler Shough and Shedeur Sanders were also potential first-round picks while someone like Jalen Milroe had plenty of upside later in the draft because of sky-high potential as a rusher.

This year, there is none of that. Instead, there is only one other prospect (Garrett Nussmeier #83) inside the consensus big board Top 100 with Drew Allar (#101) just outside.

It means that for teams looking for offensive weapons in this year’s draft, pass catchers — and specifically wide receivers — will be pushed up the board.

Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq, who ran a blazing 4.39 in the 40-yard dash, is expected to be the only tight end taken in the first round unless Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers sneaks in.

At wide receiver, on the other hand, there could realistically be six players who have their name called.

There is a different flavour of receiver for every team in the NFL too.

Jordyn Tyson is widely considered the highest-upside swing at the position with the prototypical size of a traditional X receiver, even if his physicality at the catch point and numbers again press coverage leave a lot to be desired.

His well-documented injury history is also a major red flag, with the durability concerns being the biggest reason he may slide. But he is expected to go inside the top 10.

Carnell Tate is the next receiver to come out of the illustrious Ohio State pipeline that has most recently produced the likes of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks), Garrett Wilson (Jets), Chris Olave (Saints), and Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) and is considered the safest prospect.

USC’s Makai Lemon, meanwhile, may look like a slot-only receiver but is much more than just that, capable of winning on the outside too, and compares to Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown given his physicality and fight after the catch.

Speaking of yards-after-the-catch weapons, Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. has been gaining plenty of steam leading up the draft as has Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion, who may have been included in the same tier as Tyson, Tate and Lemon if not for his drop issues.

Finally, Denzel Boston is considered a safe option at the back-end of the first round with strong hands and an enormous catch radius. While his production profile is modest, he played in a Washington Huskies team behind Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan in his first two seasons before breaking out in 2025.

The shadow of the 2027 class hangs over this draft

It’s the usual routine - in April next year’s QB class is expected to be special, and full of first-round prospects, but by December when the college season has played out, most of them have fallen down draft boards.

Things are a little different right now as college football adjusts to the NIL era, with many top prospects making more money by staying an extra year, rather than graduating early.

That has left a number of top prospects in next year’s draft instead, including Oregon’s Dante Moore (who would’ve likely gone in the top 10 this year), Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Texas’ Arch Manning - the son of Cooper, and nephew of Peyton and Eli.

Throw in Ole Miss’ playoff hero Trinidad Chambliss (who has somehow earned another year in college), mega-bucks Miami’s latest recruit Darian Mensah, Texas Tech’s Brendan Sorsby, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, LSU’s Sam Leavitt, UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava and Oklahoma’s John Mateer as well.

With so many talented young passers being watched, it’s likely at least a few of them will deliver on the promise in their final years in school and become first-round picks.

Combined with the questions over this year’s class, teams are looking to gain assets for the 2027 Draft instead - such as Philadelphia, who don’t need a QB but are happy to take future picks for AJ Brown (who seems certain to join the Patriots in June) rather than adding 2026 selections.

2026 NFL DRAFT ORDER (Pre-draft)

Round 1

1. Las Vegas Raiders

2. New York Jets

3. Arizona Cardinals

4. Tennessee Titans

5. New York Giants

6. Cleveland Browns

7. Washington Commanders

8. New Orleans Saints

9. Kansas City Chiefs

10. New York Giants (from Bengals)

11. Miami Dolphins

12. Dallas Cowboys

13. Los Angeles Rams (from Falcons)

14. Baltimore Ravens

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

16. New York Jets (from Colts)

17. Detroit Lions

18. Minnesota Vikings

19. Carolina Panthers

20. Dallas Cowboys (from Packers)

21. Pittsburgh Steelers

22. Los Angeles Chargers

23. Philadelphia Eagles

24. Cleveland Browns (from Jaguars)

25. Chicago Bears

26. Buffalo Bills

27. San Francisco 49ers

28. Houston Texans

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams)

30. Miami Dolphins (from Broncos)

31. New England Patriots

32. Seattle Seahawks

Round 2

33. New York Jets

34. Arizona Cardinals

35. Tennessee Titans

36. Las Vegas Raiders

37. New York Giants

38. Houston Texans (from Commanders)

39. Cleveland Browns

40. Kansas City Chiefs

41. Cincinnati Bengals

42. New Orleans Saints

43. Miami Dolphins

44. New York Jets (from Cowboys)

45. Baltimore Ravens

46. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

47. Indianapolis Colts

48. Atlanta Falcons

49. Minnesota Vikings

50. Detroit Lions

51. Carolina Panthers

52. Green Bay Packers

53. Pittsburgh Steelers

54. Philadelphia Eagles

55. Los Angeles Chargers

56. Jacksonville Jaguars

57. Chicago Bears

58. San Francisco 49ers

59. Houston Texans

60. Chicago Bears (from Bills)

61. Los Angeles Rams

62. Denver Broncos

63. New England Patriots

64. Seattle Seahawks

Round 3

65. Arizona Cardinals

66. Tennessee Titans

67. Las Vegas Raiders

68. Philadelphia Eagles (from Jets)

69. Houston Texans (from Giants)

70. Cleveland Browns

71. Washington Commanders

72. Cincinnati Bengals

73. New Orleans Saints

74. Kansas City Chiefs

75. Miami Dolphins

76. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Cowboys)

77. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

78. Indianapolis Colts

79. Atlanta Falcons

80. Baltimore Ravens

81. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Lions)

82. Minnesota Vikings

83. Carolina Panthers

84. Green Bay Packers

85. Pittsburgh Steelers

86. Los Angeles Chargers

87. Miami Dolphins (from Eagles)

88. Jacksonville Jaguars

89. Chicago Bears

90. Miami Dolphins (from Texans)

91. Buffalo Bills

92. Dallas Cowboys (from 49ers)

93. Los Angeles Rams

94. Miami Dolphins (from Broncos)

95. New England Patriots

96. Seattle Seahawks

97. Minnesota Vikings (Compensatory Selection)

98. Philadelphia Eagles (Compensatory Selection)

99. Pittsburgh Steelers (Compensatory Selection)

100. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Lions; Special Compensatory Selection)

Round 4

101. Tennessee Titans

102. Las Vegas Raiders

103. New York Jets

104. Arizona Cardinals

105. New York Giants

106. Houston Texans (from Commanders)

107. Cleveland Browns

108. Denver Broncos (from Saints)

109. Kansas City Chiefs

110. Cincinnati Bengals

111. Denver Broncos (from Dolphins)

112. Dallas Cowboys

113. Indianapolis Colts

114. Philadelphia Eagles (from Falcons)

115. Baltimore Ravens

116. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

117. Las Vegas Raiders (from Vikings through Jaguars)

118. Detroit Lions

119. Carolina Panthers

120. Green Bay Packers

121. Pittsburgh Steelers

122. Atlanta Falcons (from Eagles)

123. Los Angeles Chargers

124. Jacksonville Jaguars

125. New England Patriots (from Bears through Chiefs)

126. Buffalo Bills

127. San Francisco 49ers

128. Detroit Lions (from Texans)

129. Chicago Bears (from Rams)

130. Miami Dolphins (from Broncos)

131. New England Patriots

132. New Orleans Saints (from Seahawks)

133. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection)

134. Las Vegas Raiders (Compensatory Selection)

135. Pittsburgh Steelers (Compensatory Selection)

136. New Orleans Saints (Compensatory Selection)

137. Philadelphia Eagles (Compensatory Selection)

138. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection)

139. San Francisco 49ers (Compensatory Selection)

140. New York Jets (Compensatory Selection)

Round 5

141. Houston Texans (from Raiders through Browns)

142. Tennessee Titans (from Jets through Ravens)

143. Arizona Cardinals

144. Tennessee Titans (re-acquired through Rams)

145. New York Giants

146. Cleveland Browns

147. Washington Commanders

148. Kansas City Chiefs

149. Cleveland Browns (from Bengals)

150. New Orleans Saints

151. Miami Dolphins

152. Dallas Cowboys

153. Green Bay Packers (from Falcons through Eagles)

154. Baltimore Ravens

155. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

156. Indianapolis Colts

157. Detroit Lions

158. Carolina Panthers (from Vikings)

159. Carolina Panthers

160. Green Bay Packers

161. Pittsburgh Steelers

162. Baltimore Ravens (from Chargers)

163. Minnesota Vikings (from Eagles)

164. Jacksonville Jaguars

165. Buffalo Bills (from Bears)

166. Jacksonville Jaguars (from 49ers through Eagles)

167. Houston Texans (re-acquired through Eagles)

168. Buffalo Bills

169. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams)

170. Denver Broncos

171. New England Patriots

172. New Orleans Saints (from Seahawks)

173. Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory Selection)

174. Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory Selection)

175. Las Vegas Raiders (Compensatory Selection)

176. Kansas City Chiefs (Compensatory Selection)

177. Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory Selection)

178. Philadelphia Eagles (Compensatory Selection)

179. New York Jets (Compensatory Selection)

180. Dallas Cowboys (Compensatory Selection)

181. Detroit Lions (Compensatory Selection)

Round 6

182. Buffalo Bills (from Jets through Browns, Jaguars and Raiders)

183. Arizona Cardinals

184. Tennessee Titans

185. Las Vegas Raiders

186. New York Giants

187. Washington Commanders

188. Seattle Seahawks (from Browns)

189. Cincinnati Bengals

190. New Orleans Saints

191. New England Patriots (from Chiefs)

192. New York Giants (from Dolphins)

193. New York Giants (from Cowboys)

194. Tennessee Titans (from Ravens through Jets)

195. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

196. Minnesota Vikings (from Colts)

197. Philadelphia Eagles (from Falcons)

198. New England Patriots (from Vikings through Texans, Vikings and 49ers)

199. Cincinnati Bengals (from Lions through Browns)

200. Carolina Panthers

201. Green Bay Packers

202. New England Patriots (from Steelers)

203. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Eagles through Texans and Eagles)

204. Los Angeles Chargers

205. Detroit Lions (from Jaguars)

206. Cleveland Browns (from Bears)

207. Los Angeles Rams (from Texans through Rams and Titans)

208. Las Vegas Raiders (from Bills through Jets)

209. Washington Commanders (from 49ers)

210. Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams)

211. Baltimore Ravens (from Broncos through Jets, Vikings and Eagles)

212. New England Patriots

213. Detroit Lions (from Seahawks through Jaguars)

214. Indianapolis Colts (from Steelers; Compensatory Selection)

215. Atlanta Falcons (from Eagles; Compensatory Selection)

216. Pittsburgh Steelers (Compensatory Selection)

Round 7

217. Arizona Cardinals

218. Dallas Cowboys (from Titans)

219. Las Vegas Raiders

220. Buffalo Bills (from Jets)

221. Cincinnati Bengals (from Giants through Cowboys)

222. Detroit Lions (from Browns)

223. Washington Commanders

224. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Saints through Patriots)

225. Tennessee Titans (from Chiefs through Cowboys)

226. Cincinnati Bengals

227. Miami Dolphins

228. New York Jets (from Cowboys through Bills and Raiders)

229. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

230. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Colts)

231. Atlanta Falcons

232. Los Angeles Rams (from Ravens)

233. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Lions)

234. Minnesota Vikings

235. Minnesota Vikings (from Panthers)

236. Green Bay Packers

237. Pittsburgh Steelers

238. Miami Dolphins (from Chargers through Titans and Jets)

239. Chicago Bears (from Eagles through Jaguars and Browns)

240. Jacksonville Jaguars

241. Chicago Bears

242. New York Jets (from Bills through Browns)

243. Houston Texans (from 49ers)

244. Minnesota Vikings (from Texans)

245. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Rams through Texans)

246. Denver Broncos

247. New England Patriots

248. Cleveland Browns (from Seahawks)

249. Indianapolis Colts (Compensatory Selection)

250. Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory Selection)

251. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory Selection)

252. Los Angeles Rams (Compensatory Selection)

253. Baltimore Ravens (Compensatory Selection)

254. Indianapolis Colts (Compensatory Selection)

255. Green Bay Packers (Compensatory Selection)

256. Denver Broncos (Compensatory Selection)

257. Denver Broncos (Compensatory Selection)

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